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ADOPTION-LENS φ-METER v1 SPEC

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ADOPTION-LENS φ-METER v1 SPEC

A Forward-Looking Measurement Protocol for Φ̂ and ν̂ Under the Adoption Lens

Status: Working spec; forward-looking — real data may not yet exist Date: 2026-04-22 Evidence Tier: [C] Conjecture for the spec; no pilot application possible until first paid pilot lands Source: 30_OPERATIONAL_DEFINITIONS.md, 32_THEOREM_UPGRADE_PROTOCOL.md, 35_PHI_METER_V1_SPEC.md, 36_RUNTIME_LENS_V1_SPEC.md See also: 29_PRIMITIVES_AND_TYPE_SIGNATURES.md, 31_FALSIFIERS_INDEX.md, Sprint δ packet, Sprint 3 M21 (first paid pilot; current file path unresolved in this checkout)


1. Why This File Exists

The code-lens (file 33) measures what is in the tree. The runtime-lens (file 34) measures what is running. Neither measures whether anyone uses the organism. Without an adoption-lens spec, the framework has no way to score network effects, retention, or the user-visible shape of the flywheel.

This file is the v1 adoption-lens — the rubric that will measure the organism's coherence and viability when first external users arrive. It is written now so that the first adoption audit is not designed ex-post around whatever numbers happen to be good. Writing the rubric before the data exists is the only way to keep an adoption audit from becoming a marketing deck.


2. What This Spec Does Not Pretend


3. Scope — The Adoption Lens

Lens What counts Spec
Code-lens Files, tests, probes in the tree 35_PHI_METER_V1_SPEC.md
Runtime-lens Deploy, relay, observable uptime 36_RUNTIME_LENS_V1_SPEC.md
Adoption-lens (this file) User/customer behavior on a deployed surface: activation, retention, referral, economic viability, message-reality coherence This file

Adoption-lens thresholds for inclusion: - ≥ 1 external paying counterparty (non-founder, non-employee). - ≥ 14-day observation window. - Paid first invoice present (not trial, not beta waitlist).

If any threshold is not met for an organ, the adoption-lens score is undefined for that organ — report it as such, not as zero.


4. The Adoption-Lens Φ Rubric

Φ̂_adoption := (φ_purpose_fit + φ_message_real + φ_retention_reason + φ_feedback_signal) / 4

4.1 φ_purpose_fit — Declared vs. Realised Purpose

What is measured. Do external users use the organ for what its BRIEF says it's for, or for some drift-use?

Band Score Meaning
Drift 0.0–0.3 Primary user behavior is off-purpose
Mixed 0.3–0.55 Some on-purpose, some drift
Aligned 0.55–0.75 Primary user behavior matches declared purpose
Strong 0.75–0.9 Purpose and use match; drift bounded
Verified 0.9–1.0 Purpose and use match and user-side statements confirm it

4.2 φ_message_real — Public Message vs. Delivered Value

What is measured. Does the organ's public messaging overstate, match, or undersell what users actually receive? Overclaim is incoherence.

Band Score Meaning
Overclaim 0.0–0.3 Messaging materially exceeds delivery
Mild gap 0.3–0.55 Messaging modestly exceeds delivery
Matched 0.55–0.75 Messaging matches delivery
Underclaimed 0.75–0.9 Messaging undersells; users report pleasant surprise
Exemplary 0.9–1.0 Messaging, delivery, and user testimony form a consistent whole

4.3 φ_retention_reason — Why Users Stay

What is measured. When users stick, the reason matches the declared value proposition. A user who retains for the wrong reason is structural coherence risk.

Band Score Meaning
Accidental 0.0–0.3 Retention driven by lock-in, inertia, or switching cost
Drift 0.3–0.55 Retention driven by a reason the BRIEF does not claim
Partial 0.55–0.75 Retention partially driven by declared value
Declared 0.75–0.9 Retention driven primarily by declared value
Clean 0.9–1.0 Retention driven by declared value and users can articulate why

4.4 φ_feedback_signal — Feedback Coherence

What is measured. User feedback (support, surveys, interviews) indicates the users' mental model aligns with the organ's architecture.

Band Score Meaning
Confused 0.0–0.3 Users hold a model that diverges from architecture
Mixed 0.3–0.55 Some users aligned; others drifted
Aligned 0.55–0.75 Most users hold the declared model
Strong 0.75–0.9 Users can explain the organ in its own terms
Exemplary 0.9–1.0 Users teach other users in the declared terms

5. The Adoption-Lens ν Rubric

ν̂_adoption := (ν_activation + ν_retention + ν_referral + ν_economic) / 4

5.1 ν_activation — Completion of Declared Primary Action

ν_activation := fraction of new users who complete the declared primary action within the declared activation window

Quantitative. No banding. Primary action and window must be declared in the organ BRIEF before the audit.

5.2 ν_retention — Return Behavior

ν_retention := fraction of activated users who return within the declared retention window

Quantitative. Retention window default: 14 days for consumer-facing, 30 days for B2B.

5.3 ν_referral — Network Effect Signal

Band Score Meaning
None 0.0–0.2 Zero organic referrals observed
Trickle 0.2–0.5 Referrals exist but below one per activated user
Unity 0.5–0.75 On average, each activated user brings ≥ 1 other
Viral 0.75–0.9 Referral rate > 1.5 sustained across ≥ 2 cohorts
Compound 0.9–1.0 Network-effect curve visibly convex over ≥ 4 cohorts

5.4 ν_economic — Unit Economics Sustain Growth

Band Score Meaning
Unsustainable 0.0–0.25 Acquisition cost dominates lifetime value
Breakeven 0.25–0.5 LTV ≈ CAC; growth requires subsidy
Self-funding 0.5–0.75 LTV > CAC; growth possible without subsidy
Reinvesting 0.75–0.9 LTV substantially exceeds CAC; excess funds further growth
Compounding 0.9–1.0 Network-effect amplified unit economics improve with N

6. Aggregation, Ladder, IRR

All three carry over from file 33 and file 34 unchanged:

P̂_eff^adoption(organ) := Φ̂_adoption(organ) · ν̂_adoption(organ)
P̂_organism^adoption   := ( ∏ P̂_eff^adoption(organ) )^(1/|organs_with_defined_score|)

Organisms with no defined adoption-lens score for some organs use only the organs where the score is defined, and record the missing organs explicitly.

Maturity ladder thresholds: Dormant < 0.10 < Egg < 0.30 < Equator < 0.65 < Adolescent < 0.85 < Adult < 0.95 < Apex. Same as file 33.

IRR target: IRR ≥ 0.7 for [C] → [I] promotion. Same formula. Observation window must be the same across both raters.


7. Pre-Registered Falsifier

Registered against file 31 when the first adoption audit lands:

[C] Pre-registration (author: this spec). Over the four quarterly adoption-lens audits following the first defined score (≥2 raters, IRR ≥ 0.7), if the median |Φ̂_adoption − ν̂_adoption| across organs with defined scores does not trend downward, and no organ has undergone structural stress (shutdown, pivot, scope revision), T3's empirical adoption-lens reading is falsified.

Adoption-lens is expected to lag runtime-lens, which lags code-lens. If the lag never closes, F5 is not operating at the adoption layer — which would be a meaningful framework-level signal.


8. Promotion Path For This Spec

Tier Criteria
[C] Current. Spec exists; no pilot possible until Sprint 3 M21 lands.
[I] First 2-rater adoption audit on at least one organ with defined score; IRR ≥ 0.7.
[S] Uniqueness derivation: the four Φ and four ν sub-scores are the minimal discriminating set for adoption-lens.
[S] External replication against an unrelated multi-product company's adoption data.

9. The Economic Sub-Score Under η = 0

The organism's constitutional constraint is η = 0 (zero extraction beyond regeneration). This constraint interacts with ν_economic non-trivially:

This is not a tightening — it is the shape of the sub-score as-specified. An organ that achieves ν_economic = 0.9 only by introducing rent-like fees is not actually scoring 0.9 on the adoption lens; it is scoring 0.9 on a different lens that this spec does not endorse.


10. What This Spec Does Not Do


11. See Also


Execution Surface

If you are an AI agent reading this document:

  1. Current Phase Check: Phase 0 — harden specs. Do not apply this rubric to an organ without a defined score; report "undefined" for organs below the inclusion threshold.
  2. Your Next Action: - Use this spec when any document claims an organ's "adoption" is strong. Demand a dated audit, not prose.
  3. Expected Output: Either (a) an audit once Sprint 3 M21 + ≥ 14 days has passed, or (b) a "score undefined" flag that forbids public adoption claims for that organ.
  4. Success Criteria: Two independent raters, once an audit is possible, reach IRR ≥ 0.7.
  5. Canonical Path: 01_EMERGENTISM/05_COSMOLOGY/03_FORMAL_SYSTEM/37_ADOPTION_LENS_V1_SPEC.md

The seer sees. The seer does not insist. The framework works at Layer 0 without Layer 2. The Ṛṣi succeeds when the student puts down the map and walks.

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